'Empire of a Devil'

By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/29/opinion/29KRIS.html
Reprinted as 'fair use' from NY Times

April 29, 2003

Here's a news item you may have missed:

"Military experts said that a war between North Korea and the U.S. will end with the delightful victory of North Korea, a newly emerging military power, in 100 hours. . . . The U.S. [will] be enveloped in flames . . . and the arrogant empire of a devil will breathe its last."

That was issued by the North Korean news agency on Sunday. So I guess we've located the blustery Iraqi information minister „ he must have taken refuge in North Korea.

The North Korean crisis is at a turning point. The talks between the U.S. and North Korea ended acrimoniously on Friday after the North said it already had nuclear weapons (which the C.I.A. believes is true, but it's still impolite to say in public).

Still, there's a reed of hope. North Korea proposed, officials say, that it might give up its nuclear programs and halt missile exports in exchange for security guarantees, normalized relations and mountains of aid. Basically, North Korea would do what it promised in a 1994 deal (but failed to do) if we would do what we pledged in 1994 (but also failed to do).

The administration is studying the proposal, and there are some signs of reason in the air. Earlier, to get to the talks, North Korea abandoned its insistence on a purely bilateral discussion with the U.S., while the U.S. gave up its demand for purely multilateral discussions. It also stopped insisting that North Korea dismantle its nuclear program before any talks.

The Bush administration spun this so artfully that it was widely portrayed as North Korea's backing down in fear after the Iraq war. In fact, Washington caved at least as much as Pyongyang.

Meanwhile, China, which had been AWOL, is now playing a heroic role. It pressured North Korea, cutting off oil supplies for imaginary "technical reasons," and stepped up to the plate to mediate the talks between the U.S. and North Korea.

The North Koreans' new proposal is encouraging, although, as President Bush put it, it means that "they're up to their old blackmail game." Mr. Bush's refusal to reward North Korean bad behavior is perfectly admirable, but it's also entirely impractical.

"The history of nonproliferation is rewarding bad behavior," one American expert said. "This has been true since Atoms for Peace. But the country has to stay bought."

There are two alternatives to rewarding bad behavior. One is to acquiesce in the North Korean nuclear program, which would risk widespread proliferation, with terrorists buying plutonium and Japan and South Korea developing their own nuclear weapons.

A second alternative is to continue the administration's failed policy of trying to shun North Korea. Yup, this is the same policy that over the last few months led the North to revive its frozen plutonium program.

"The new approach of depending entirely on squeezing them looks like it is going to be an utter failure, and it is squandering everything we had achieved over the years," a senior U.S. official glumly observed.

The hawks are aghast at the idea of a new package deal with North Korea, and Washington seems to have been reasonable lately only because the Pentagon was too distracted by Iraq to notice what the State Department was up to. Pentagon officials yelped when they noticed, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld circulated a memo suggesting that Washington and Beijing together bring down the North Korean government.

A fine dream. But what's scary is that this proposal is so divorced from reality (Beijing would never agree) that it suggests that policy is being formulated by ideologues sealed within the Pentagon.

And when sanctions on North Korea would fail, the next step would be a military strike. It's a sign of the mess we're in that even a thoughtful statesman like Senator Richard Lugar, the Indiana Republican, is talking openly about a military strike. A strike would be a historic gamble that might work, or might trigger a war that would incinerate hundreds of thousands of people in Korea and Japan.

"That would be truly insane," said Steven Bosworth, a former ambassador to Seoul. He added, "For us to unilaterally attack North Korea would in my judgment be one of the most immoral acts conceivable."

All in all, looking at the alternatives, starting negotiations should be preferable to starting wars.

Page created April 29, 2003 by Charlie Jenks